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Home > Classroom > Page 25

Permanent Gold Backwardation: The Crack Up Boom

May 10, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

http://keithweiner.posterous.com

Professor Antal Fekete has written several pieces discussing gold backwardation, and arguing that this is the red alert signal for the coming financial Armageddon, when the tower of unpayable debts collapses. In this paper, I delve deeper into this topic. My goal is to make this topic approachable by the layman and describe what I think will happen when backwardation in gold futures becomes permanent.

Most people define “backwardation” for a commodity as when the price of a future contract is lower than the price in the spot market. But since there are two prices for everything, we must look at the bid and the offer. They are more meaningful than the last cleared price (which is what people think of as “the price”). So we must refine the concept of backwardation slightly, as I will show below.

In backwardation, one can sell a physical good for cash and simultaneously buy a future to make a profit. Note that in doing this trade, one’s position does not change in the end. One begins with a certain amount of the good and ends (upon maturity of the contract) with that amount of the good.

So let us examine the actual trade that any arbitrager in the market could do. To sell the physical commodity, one must take the bid. And likewise, to buy the future one must pay the offer. With this arbitrage in mind, we define the term:

Backwardation is when the bid in the spot market > offer on a future

Why is this important? What does it mean?

Many commodities, like wheat, are produced seasonally. But consumption is much more evenly spread around the year. Immediately prior to the harvest, the spot price of wheat is normally at its highest. This is because wheat stocks in the warehouses are very low. People will have to pay a higher price for immediate delivery. At the same time, everyone in the market knows that the harvest will be in one month. So the price, if a buyer can wait one month for delivery, is lower. This is a case of backwardation.

Normally, backwardation is a signal that a commodity is scarce. This is because if anyone had a quantity of it, they could make a risk-free profit by delivering it and getting it back later. Markets do not normally offer risk-free profits, and in the case of backwardation there is not normally a real opportunity to make a risk-free profit because the good really is scarce—no one actually has a lot of it to sell at that time.

It is worth delving into arbitrage briefly to complete the point about backwardation. Arbitrage is, in essence, an attempt to make a profit on a spread (usually by buying one thing and selling another). The important thing to note is that the arbitrager pays the offer on what he buys, thus lifting said offer, and takes the bid on what he sells, thus depressing said bid. The arbitrager, alone or with many others doing the same trade, will usually force the spread to narrow to the point where further arbitrage is no longer profitable. If it is possible to make a risk-free profit someone will do it, and another, and so on until it is no longer to make a risk-free profit.

I said “usually” because in the case of a shortage of wheat it is not possible to make a risk-free profit unless one has physical wheat in one’s warehouse. In the case when there is not enough grain remaining in stock to compress this spread, backwardation persists (or grows) until the harvest.

Earlier, I said backwardation “normally” means there is a shortage. But what if backwardation happens to gold? There is more gold in human possession than any other commodity by a factor of 100 or more (abundance or scarcity must be measured as a ratio of stocks or inventories to flows or annual production—the absolute amount is not important). Given gold’s massive accumulated inventories, a “shortage” of gold is impossible.

So what does gold backwardation really mean?

For ordinary commodities, the lower price on the future contract vs. spot signals the relative scarcity available for delivery today vs. delivery in the future. But what would a lower price on gold for future delivery mean compared to a higher price on gold to be had in one’s hand today? Well, mechanically, it means that gold delivered to the market is in short supply.

The meaning of gold backwardation is that trust in future delivery scarce, vs. trust in the gold in one’s hands today.

In an ordinary commodity, scarcity of the physical good available for delivery today is resolved by higher prices. At a high enough price, demand for wheat falls until existing stocks are sufficient to meet the reduced demand.

But how is scarcity of trust resolved?

Thus far, the answer has been via higher prices. However, when backwardation becomes permanent, then trust in the gold futures market will have collapsed. Unlike with wheat, millions of people and some large institutions have plenty of gold they can sell in the physical market and buy back via futures contracts. When they choose not to, that is the beginning of the end of the current financial system.

Why?

Think about the similarities between the following three statements:

  • “My paper gold future contract will be honored by delivery of gold.”
  • “If I trade my gold for paper now, I will be able to get gold back in the future.”
  • “I will be able to exchange paper money for gold in the future.”

I submit that it will not take gold holders a long time to arrive at the inevitable conclusion. If some holders of gold do not agree, then they will sell (at higher prices, probably) to those who do. Soon enough, there will not be sellers of gold in the physical market.

With an ordinary commodity, there is a limit to what buyers are willing to pay based on the need satisfied by that commodity, the availability of substitutes, and the buyers’ other needs that also must be satisfied within the same budget. The higher the price, the more that holders are motivated to sell and the less that consumers are motivated (or able) to buy. The cure for high prices is high prices.

But gold is different. Unlike wheat, it is not bought for consumption. While some people hold it to speculate on increases in its paper price, by the logic above, they will be replaced by people who are holding it because they do not trust paper and want to hold gold because gold is money.

Gold does not have a “high enough” price that will discourage buying or encourage selling. No amount of price change will bring back trust in paper currencies once said currencies decline past the threshold where it is obvious to a critical mass of people. Thus gold backwardation will not only recur, but at some (hard to predict) point, it will not leave its backwardated state.

In looking at the bid and offer, one other fact is germane to this discussion. In times of crisis, it is always the big that is withdrawn; there is never a lack of offers. Another way of looking at permanent gold backwardation is as the withdrawal of gold’s (i.e. money’s) bid on irredeemable government debt paper (e.g. dollar bills). But paper’s bid on gold is unlimited.

The remainder of this essay address what will happen to non-monetary goods when gold goes into permanent backwardation. Note that it is possible that silver will go into backwardardation prior to, concurrently with, or following gold. I make no prediction about the sequence. In the following discussion, everything should be interpreted to apply to silver as well as gold.

Many people who hold paper but who desire to hold gold will buy (e.g.) crude oil for paper, and then sell it for gold (I will call buying a commodity for paper to sell it for gold “gold arbitrage”). This will drive up the price of crude in terms of paper, and drive down the price of crude in terms of gold. Even if this “window” were to remain open indefinitely, it is obvious that larger and larger amounts of paper will buy dwindling amounts of gold. This is because of the twin rising prices of crude-in-paper and gold-in-crude.

For example, if today the price of a barrel of crude in terms of paper is $100 and gold priced in crude is 15 barrels, then $1500 can be traded for one ounce of gold this way. But if the price of crude in paper rises to $2000 and the price of gold in crude rises to 150 barrels, then one would need $300,000 to trade for one ounce of gold this way. There will always be a gold bid on crude, but it need not necessarily be high.

Of course, this window will shut sooner or later (I suspect sooner), as I show below.

To summarize, what I have outlined above is the logical outcome of permanent gold backwardation. With an understanding of Austrian economics, particularly the ideas of Carl Menger and Antal Fekete, one can see that in permanent gold backwardation the following steps are inevitable:

  • Withdrawal of offers to sell physical gold for paper money
  • Skyrocketing price of liquid commodities in terms of paper
  • Falling price of commodities in terms of gold

Gold is not officially recognized as the foundation of the financial system. Yet it is still a necessary component, without which the system will collapse. As I will show, it is impossible to divorce gold and paper without also divorcing commodities and paper.

Earlier, I gave three equivalent statements:

  • “My paper gold future contract will be honored by delivery of gold.”
  • “If I trade my gold for paper now, I will be able to get gold back in the future.”
  • “I will be able to exchange paper money for gold in the future.”

My point was to show that these statements are all false. They are false for the same reason. This is what is discovered by the market, when it goes into permanent backwardation. Paper currencies are backed by debt, and the debt has grown far past the point where it could possibly be repaid. It is rapidly approaching the point where the interest cannot be kept current. So governments and other borrowers seek to borrow ever more money to pay the interest on their debt and to cover their permanent deficits. This cannot continue forever, or indeed much longer.

There is a fourth statement that is equivalent to the other three above:

“My paper money will be accepted in trade for the goods I need in the future”

If the first three are false, this one is also necessarily false.

The commodity producers will eventually be forced to do business by buying their inputs for gold and selling their outputs for gold. To validate this, let us use the technique of assuming the opposite is true, and see if that leads to a contradiction. Let us assume that commodity producers will continue to operate by buying their inputs for paper and selling their outputs for paper. As discussed above, paper prices for their output products will be skyrocketing. At first, this would seem to be good for them.

However, we must consider that each business needs to keep the appropriate balance of its capital in cash, ready to pay for inputs, wages, etc. Under conditions of rapidly rising prices for inputs, cash is rapidly losing purchasing power. One cannot keep cash for more than a day (if that), without losing precious capital. Every business will spend its cash as quickly as possible. Now someone has to hold it, as the cash does not go out of existence when one spends it—it just goes into someone else’s hands. So this will be a period of rapidly accelerating capital decumulation. Second, most businesses will have a suboptimal allocation of cash which is determined, not by rational analysis, but by this game of “hot potato”. This leads to another consequence: shortages.

Ordinarily, the businessman does not want to keep excess inventory of his output product. This is because the marginal utility of oil or tires or whatever declines rapidly, but the marginal utility of money (even paper money) does not. But in the condition of gold backwardation, the marginal utility of paper is declining faster than any real product.

So the commodity producer would be wise to keep its output in inventory, and only sell his products as he needs the cash to buy another input. This is inefficient, and tantamount to losing the benefit of indirect trade. It will cause supply disruptions to businesses that use this commodity as their input. It will also cause much wider spreads, as the market becomes less liquid, and rapidly changing prices add the risk that a normally profitable spread could become unprofitable. Narrow spreads are a sign of increasing economic coordination; widening spreads are a sign of collapsing coordination.

In gold backwardation, the next problem for commodity producers to (somehow) address is: how can a business use a rapidly diminishing currency as its unit of account? How is one to even determine whether production is profitable or unprofitable? Hint: if a business is decumulating capital, it is making losses.

One must also consider real demand (as opposed to the demand for a medium for the gold arbitragers). As the paper price rises, most buyers don’t have unlimited amounts of paper to pay. How many people can fill their car with gasoline every week at $100 per gallon? How about $1000? Real demand for commodities is collapsing in this environment (going back to the analysis above, recall that the prices of commodities in gold are falling). But the prices are rising in paper terms. Regardless of the value of paper money, in real terms: most businesses that produce a good with rapidly falling demand do not make a profit.

Another challenge comes from the fact that not all prices rise equally. As discussed above, the primary driver for liquid commodity prices is the arbitrage to get into gold, because there will always be a gold bid for food and energy. But what about specialty manufactured products?

Machine parts and truck tires do not make a suitable vehicle for the gold arbitrage, and so their prices may not rise to the extent of oil and wheat. The spread (i.e. profit margin) for manufacturers of these items, who need to buy oil as their inputs, may very well become permanently negative. While there will be some demand from commodity producers to provide a bid, such thinly traded markets could see enormous volatility. The nature of a business who makes a specialty product for a thinly traded market, especially a business which is thinly capitalized, is that it must make a profit every month or at least every quarter or else close its doors. Even if the spread reverts to the mean, an inversion lasting one or two months could be enough to destroy such a company.

And even if the spread does not collapse, think of the behavior of their customers. Unlike oil drillers whose output product is in constant demand (especially by the gold arbitragers), who can choose exactly when they sell their products, specialty manufacturers are not sovereign. They must sell when buyers want to buy. But their buyers, the commodity producers, are going to be controlling their buying and selling in larger batches rather than the steady buying of “just in time” that was operative when the currency was stable.

So a summary of (some) consequences suffered by all commodity producers who try to do business in terms of paper money after permanent gold backwardation:

  • Capital decumulation due to the necessity of holding some cash at some times while said cash is rapidly falling in value
  • Supply shortages, including failure of critical vendors, causing production disruptions and lost time/money
  • Hoarding of produced goods
  • Collapsing real demand
  • Skyrocketing prices do not perfectly compensate for skyrocketing costs
  • Rising volatility and widening spreads across the board
  • No usable unit of account for one’s books, so losses will (temporarily) look like gains
  • As currency devolves, efficiency of transactions devolves also to become more like direct (barter) trade, requiring coincidence of wants or at least timing

Without even addressing strikes by workers, failure of critical infrastructure like the electrical grid, or the breakdown of law and order (how will the government collect and use taxes to employ police and firefighters?), it should be clear that businesses who use paper money will not be able to operate profitably for long.

Thus it is safe to conclude that the gold miners will not continue to provide gold to the paper market. The same holds true for all other commodities. By temporarily assuming that commodity producers could continue to supply goods to sell for paper, the opposite has been proven.

While no one can predict the timing, and I think that it will be years away, my conclusion is that Von Mises’ “Crack Up Boom” is an inevitable consequence of permanent gold backwardation.

© Keith Weiner May 10, 2011

Filed Under: Gold and Silver, Keith Weiner, Popular Economics

Back to the Gold Standard

May 9, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/05/back_to_the_gold_standard.html

“Most Americans believe the massive federal budget deficit is a very serious problem that will create hardships for future generations,” found a CBS News/New York Times poll earlier this year.

This finding is consistent with a number of other surveys which have been conducted in recent months. Poll after poll shows that the majority of Americans are deeply concerned about out-of-control spending, runaway budget deficits, and the ballooning national debt.

The concern is amply justified given that our federal government is essentially bankrupt. With a national debt of $14.3 trillion and with $100 trillion plus in long-term entitlement liabilities, it has assumed more obligations that it can ever conceivably make good upon.

Remarkably, neither of the two major political parties is willing to take meaningful measures to address this existential crisis. Even though they both talk about the need to cut deficits and bring spending under control, the practical result of their proposals and actions is the same — more spending, more debt, and more deficits.

But there is a way to bring about restraint. It is called the gold standard, and it is the only foolproof method of placing the government under fiscal discipline.

Under the gold standard all financial instruments — including dollar notes and government securities — must ultimately be backed by existing physical metal. At today’s prices, America’s national debt would roughly translate into double all the gold ever mined. This should give a good idea of the excessiveness involved here. In any case, the gold standard would have made it impossible for the fiscal fix we are now in to come about.

It is quite possible that under the gold standard our government would run surpluses on a regular basis. When debts are incurred in a world of real money, the first question voters usually ask is: “Where is our government going to get the gold required to satisfy its obligations?”

Since gold cannot be manufactured at will in some government facility, there is obviously only one place where it can come from: From the population, through taxation.

When deficits balloon under the gold standard, people are acutely conscious of the fact that it is with their own gold — real and precious — that budget shortfalls will have to be paid for.

Thus under the gold standard, the reality of debt is driven home in a hard and immediate way. With an electorate so sensitized, debt-addicted politicians tend to quickly suffer the consequences of their profligate ways. It is, therefore, no surprise that governments whose currencies are pegged to gold almost always behave in fiscally responsible fashion.

Under a fiat money regime such as we have now, the situation is altogether different. Debt can be run up easily, because politicians are not tied to anything real that would put a check on how much of it can be issued. Even when the bonds themselves come due, government can simply create more money to pay off creditors.

When this money also happens to be the world’s reserve currency, the temptation to be irresponsible is especially acute. Hence we now have a situation now in the United States whereby the federal government borrows 42 cents of every dollar it spends.

The gold standard would change matters dramatically by immediately forcing fiscal discipline on Washington. This was pointed out last week by Steve Forbes who came out in favor of the gold standard in an interview with editors of Human events: “With a stable currency [i.e., gold-backed dollar], it is much harder for governments to borrow excessively,” he said.

It is, indeed. This quality of the gold standard is sometimes referred to as the golden shackles. And it is the main reason why politicians everywhere oppose it with such vigor.

But never mind the displeasure of the political elites. Under the gold standard most of us would be much better off. The gold standard would protect the purchasing power of our earnings and the long-term value of our savings by preventing politicians from degrading our money with debts without limit.


Vasko Kohlmayer
May 19, 2011

Filed Under: Gold and Silver, Popular Economics, Vasko Kohlmayer

Hearken to the Sacred Geese of Juno Moneta

April 11, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

Antal E. Fekete

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFJunoMoneta.pdf

On April 6 last I sent an open letter Congressmen Ron Paul of Texas accusing the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Dr. Ben Bernanke, that

(1) his program of Quantitative Easing (QE) whereby the Federal Reserve banks purchase U.S. Treasury paper directly from

the U.S. Treasury is not authorized by the Federal Reserve Act and is therefore unlawful;

(2) even if for the sake of argument we disregard where the Fed buys its paper, the sum appears to be higher than all

available Federal Reserve credit outstanding and, moreover, the F.R. banks do not have unencumbered collateral to

post in order to create more to conclude these purchases.

I have received an unusually large feedback in my e-mail. People want to know how I can substantiate these accusations against Dr. Bernanke. Of course I cannot say that I have caught Dr. Bernanke red-handed. All I can do is to present circumstantial evidence.

I start with a statement that I am fully aware of the seriousness of my accusations, and my responsibility in making them. I do not make them frivolously. I have been contemplating to do it for decades. My reasons for postponing have to do with calculating for maximum impact. I am but an isolated individual trying to take on the incumbent of one of the most powerful offices ever created on this earth. Wrong timing may be suicidal.

I first came to suspect that in injecting F.R. credit in the domestic and world economy the Fed was in violation of the law when former Chairman Alan Greenspan inundated the money markets shortly after taking office following the stock market crash in 1989. My suspicion was that he got away with it by simply reversing the two-step creation of F.R. credit, namely, FIRST STEP: posting collateral; SECOND STEP: issuing F.R. notes and creating F.R. deposits.

Reversing the process would have meant that Greenspan had FIRST issued the notes and created deposits and, SECOND: with them he had purchased Treasury paper pledging them for the purpose of creating credit ex post facto (retroactively).

To the uninitiated this simple reversal may look innocuous enough and, indeed, Greenspan could have argued that nothing more than a simple house-keeping change was put into effect that fell well within his authority. On closer scrutiny, however, it appeared that it was not a housekeeping change at all. It was, if indeed it happened the way I have assumed it did, an instance of usurpation of power that Congress alone has: to amend the Federal Reserve Act. No abundance of words would change the fact that, if Greenspan had done that, then he had created F.R. credit in blatant violation of the law. The difference made by the reversal was the difference between issuing F.R. credit lawfully, or issuing it unlawfully.

To see this just imagine that you are applying for a loan at the bank. The manager lets you sign the note and credits your account with an equivalent deposit. In escorting you to the door he pats you on the back and, when you are on the street, gives you a parting shout: “Don’t forget to drop back with the collateral at your convenience!”

If my allegations came anywhere close to the truth, then it would mean that the pregnant Trojan horse has been dragged up the hill and is now firmly implanted inside of the inner sanctum of the citadel. The Greek soldiers hiding inside the wooden horse were just waiting for the signal to get out of its belly, to fall upon the inhabitants of Troy and murder them in their sleep, women, children and all.

Translate that ancient story of Homer to our present situation and see that pirates have taken over our government’s finances, and are getting ready to help themselves to the public purse. These pirates apparently believe that members of the Legislative Branch, congressmen and senators, are simpletons. They can be easily persuaded that no more than a mere technical housekeeping change is involved. After all it is inconsequential, is it not, whether the cleaning people wash the windows first and scrub the floor afterwards, or whether they do them in the opposite order. The same is true, for the stronger reason, for the experts at the Fed.

Should anyone try to tip off legislators about the prestidigitation, he could always be dismissed as a ‘foggy bottom belly-acher’. Only a heartless economic royalist would deny relief money to the unemployed, the breadwinner with a foreclosed home, and their starving families. Also, remember, Treasury paper was bought by the Fed directly from the Treasury to keep the rate of interest fixed during World War II. Now we are at war once more combating terrorism. Can we do any less than we did then, to achieve victory?

I have known Congressman Ron Paul for close to forty years. I respect him and I think I can confidently say that he also respects me. He knows I am a careful scholar. I thought of briefing him on my suspicion. On second thought, however, I rejected the idea. It would be unfair to him on account of the scanty evidence I could offer. It would only embarrass him. He would have to fight an army of Fed attorneys, Fed accountants, and Fed economists single handedly. They would easily discredit him. It would be a lonely fight, against the odds, on a slanting field, adjudicated by an umpire bribed with our own money.

A better plan would be to wait until the pirates make a mistake, as they were likely to do after their initial successes. Given enough rope, they might just hang themselves.

I think this is exactly what has happened with QE, the rope the pirates asked for and got. QE I was an enormous over-reach. Yet, incredibly, no one at home or abroad has even questioned its legality. Pirates in the belly of the Trojan horse thought that their hour has struck. They were ready for the massacre.

The combined F.R. credit creation of QE I and II exceeds one trillion dollars. There is no way underneath the Sun to come up with unencumbered collateral of that magnitude to make this miraculous money proliferation legal.

It is time to blow the whistle. It is time for the sacred geese of Juno Moneta to honk, sounding the wake-up call for the sleepers to start defending themselves against mortal danger: that of being sold into slavery.

French boys and girls, if you asked them where the French equivalent of the word ‘money’ has come from, would answer: “Why, it means ‘silver’, doesn’t it?” By contrast, most native English speakers don’t know the origin of the English word ‘money’. That’s a pity because the explanation is fascinating. It is wrapped in a fairy-tale like story. Well, schools do not teach fairy tales any more, even if they have a moral on which your life may one day depend.

Many years after the rape of Troy by the Greeks, Rome was similarly threatened by its enemy, the barbarian tribe of the Gauls that invaded the peninsula and put Rome under siege. Inhabitants took refuge in the Capitolium.

The patroness of Rome was the supreme goddess Juno, wife of Jupiter, the father of the Olympian gods and goddesses. The Romans built a magnificent temple for her honor inside Capitolium, the citadel at the top of the hill which doubled up as the Mint where the gold, silver and copper coins of Rome were struck. In the garden around the temple the sacred geese of Juno dwelt.

In the back of the temple the hill was steep and full of cliffs with no roads. The Romans expected the assault to come from the opposite side that was less steep and where the roads were. Accordingly, the Romans left the back of the hill undefended. The invaders decided to take advantage of that. They approached the hill from that side and wanted to surprise the inhabitants under the cover of the night and murder them in their sleep.

They climbed the cliffs. Their plan would have probably succeeded but for the sacred geese of Juno that started honking loud when they noticed the invaders. That in turn woke up the defenders who drove off the enemy and defeated them decisively in the battle that followed next day. Unlike the story of Troy, this one had a happy ending.

The Romans gave thanks to their patroness Juno and thereafter called her Juno Moneta (Juno the warner, or Juno the admonitor). And Rome went on to great things. Her coins carried her fame, glory and riches to the far corners of the known world. And because they were minted in the temple of Juno Moneta, people lovingly called them ‘money’.

Let this be the wake-up call for America. Terrorism is a red herring. The real enemy is already inside of the citadel. The pirates have taken over the Fed. The sacred geese of Juno are honking loudly.

May Juno Moneta once more save our civilization.

A. E. Fekete, Impeach Bernanke! www.professorfekete.com, April 6, 2011

April 12, 2011.

Filed Under: Antal E. Fekete, Gold and Silver, Popular Economics

IMPEACH BERNANKE!

April 6, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

An open letter to Congressman Ron Paul of Texas

Antal E. Fekete

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFImpeachBernanke.pdf

April 6, 2011

Dear Dr. Paul:

There are serious questions about the legality of Quantitative Easing. You are among the few who are well-qualified and well-placed to get to the bottom of it.

Most people believe, and the media confirm them in that belief, that the Fed can legally create dollars ‘out of the thin air’ in any quantity, and can do with them as it pleases. This may well be the pipe dream of Dr. Bernanke who is quoted as saying that the U.S. government has given the Fed a tool, the printing press, to stop deflation — but it hardly corresponds to the truth. The Fed can create new dollars only if some stringent legal conditions are satisfied, and then, it can only dispose of them in certain ways prescribed by law.

Contrary to a statement of Dr. Bernanke, made before he became the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Fed, he could not drop freshly printed dollars from a helicopter, no matter how many reasons for such an action he may be able to cite. Another thing the Fed is not allowed to do legally is to purchase Treasury paper from the U.S. Treasury directly. It must be purchased indirectly through open market operations. If you don’t put the Treasury paper through the test of the open market before the Fed is allowed to buy it, the presumption is that the market would reject it as worthless, or would take it only at a deep discount. The law does not allow the F.R. banks to purchase Treasury paper directly from the Treasury because that would make money creation through the F.R. banks a charade, reserve requirements a farce, and the dollar a sham.

If that were the only problem with Quantitative Easing, it would be bad enough. But there is something else that is even more ominous. The fact is that the Federal Reserve banks can purchase Treasury paper only if they pay with F.R. credit that has been legally created .

F.R. credit (F.R. notes and F.R. deposits) is legally created if it has been issued in accordance with the law. The law says that F.R. credit must be backed by collateral security at the time of issuance , usually in the form of an equivalent amount of U.S. Treasury paper. The procedure is as follows.

The F.R. bank seeking to expand credit takes its Treasury paper, owned outright and free from encumbrances , and posts it as collateral with the Federal Reserve agent who will then authorize the issuing of credit. In other words, if the F.R. banks do not have the unencumbered Treasury paper in their possession, then they cannot create additional credit legally.

There is some evidence that the F.R. banks do not have F.R. credit available to make the kind of purchases Dr. Bernanke is talking about as part of his Quantitative Easing. Nor do they have unencumbered Treasury paper in sufficient quantity that they could post with the F.R. agent for authorizing the issue of additional F.R. credit.

The point is that the process of posting collateral first, and augmenting F.R. credit afterwards must under no circumstances be reversed. What the F.R. banks cannot legally do is to buy the Treasury paper first with unauthorized F.R. credit, post the paper as collateral, and justify the illegal issuance of credit retroactively. Nor can they borrow the bond from the Treasury, post it as collateral, and pay for the bond retroactively.

This is an important limitation separating the regime of market-based irredeemable currency from the regime of fiat money involving outright monetization of government debt — the graveyard where the Continental dollar, the assignat, the mandat, the Reichsmark, and the Zimbabwe dollar (among countless others) rest.

At any rate, retroactive authorization of F.R. credit, if that’s what the Fed is up to, would be a violation of both the letter and spirit of the F.R. Act. It would mean converting the dollar into outright fiat money through the back door, bypassing Congress. It would show absolute bad faith on the part of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Dr. Ben Bernanke, who certainly knows what the law is. Such a blatant violation of the law would make him totally unfit for the powerful office he occupies. It would call for his immediate and dishonorable discharge by the President, pending Congressional investigation of the matter.

The various violations of the law of which the Fed is accused point to a concerted effort to remove the shackles the law has put on the money spigots lest crooks help themselves to the public purse. These violations are not isolated incidents. They are aiming at the corruption of the monetary order of the nation and the world. Moreover, they would ultimately figure prominently among the causes of the financial instability the world has been suffering from since 1971 and, more recently, since 2008.

Without understanding this fundamental truth, all talk about stabilizing the monetary system and reining in the runaway budget deficit is an exercise in futility.

Yours very sincerely,

Antal E. Fekete

Professor (retired)

Memorial University of Newfoundland

Tel./Fax: +36-1-325-7996

Filed Under: Antal E. Fekete, Gold and Silver, Popular Economics

Silver And Opium

February 10, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

position papers of professorfekete #5, February 10, 2011

Antal E. Fekete

http://professorfekete.com/articles/AEFPositionPaper5SilverAndOpium.pdf

<Section xml:space=”preserve” HasTrailingParagraphBreakOnPaste=”False” xmlns=”http://schemas.microsoft.com/winfx/2006/xaml/presentation”><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”The opium wars do not belong to the glorious episodes of Western history. Rather, they were instances of shameful behavior the West still has not lived down. Mercantilist governments resented the perpetual drain of silver from West to East in payment for Oriental goods (tea, silk, porcelain) that were in high demand in the Occident, facing low demand in the Orient for Occidental goods. From the mid-17th century more than 9 billion Troy ounces or 290 thousand metric tons of silver was absorbed by China from European countries in exchange for Chinese goods. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”The British introduced opium along with tobacco as an export item to China in order to reduce their trade deficit. Under the disguise of free trade, the British, the Spanish and the French with the tacit approval of the Americans continued sending their contraband to China through legitimate as well as illegitimate trade channels even after the Chinese dynasty put an embargo on opium imports. Because of its strong appeal to the Chinese masses, and because of its highly addictive nature, opium appeared to be the ideal solution to the West’s trade problem. And, indeed, the flow of silver was first stopped, and then reversed. China was forced to pay silver for her addiction to opium smoking that was artificially induced by the pusher: the British. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”Thus silver was replaced by opium as the mainstay of Western exports. In 1729 China, recognizing the growing problem of addiction and the debilitating and mind-corrupting nature of the drug, prohibited the sale and smoking of opium; allowing only a small quota of imports for medicinal purposes. The British defied the embargo and ban on opium trade, and encouraged smuggling. As a result, British exports of opium to China grew from an estimated 15 tons to 75 by 1773. This increased further to 900 tons by 1820; and to 1400 tons annually by 1838 — an almost 100-fold increase in 100 years.” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”Something had to be done. The Chinese government introduced death penalty for drug trafficking, and put British processing and distributing facilities on Chinese soil under siege. Chinese troops boarded British ships in international waters carrying opium to Chinese ports and destroyed their cargo, in addition to the destruction of opium found on Chinese territory. The British accused the Chinese of destroying British property, and sent a large British- Indian army to China in order to exact punishment. British military superiority was clearly evident in the armed conflict. British warships wreaked havoc on coastal towns. After taking Canton the British sailed up the Yangtze River. They grabbed the tax barges, inflicting a devastating blow on the Chinese as imperial revenues were impossible to collect. In 1842 China sued for peace that was concluded in Nanking and ratified the following year. In the treaty China was forced to pay an indemnity to Britain, open four port cities where British subjects were given extraterritorial privileges, and cede Hong Kong to Britain. In 1844 the United States and France signed similar treaties with China. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”These humiliating treaties were criticized in the House of Commons by William E. Gladstone, who later served as Prime Minister. He was wondering “whether there had ever been a war more unjust in its origin, a war more calculated to cover Britain with permanent disgrace.” The Foreign Secretary, Lord Palmerston replied that nobody believed that the Chinese government’s motive was “the promotion of good moral habits”, or that the war was fought to stem China’s balance of trade deficit. The American president John Quincy Adams chimed in during the debate by suggesting that opium was a “mere incident”. According to him “the cause of the war was the arrogant and insupportable pretensions of China that she would hold commercial intercourse with the rest of mankind not upon terms of equal reciprocity, but upon the insulting and degrading forms of the relations between lord and vassal.” These words are echoed, 160 years later, by president Obama’s recent disdainful pronouncements to the effect that China’s exchange-rate policy is unacceptable to the rest of mankind as it pretends that China’s currency is that of the lord, and everybody else’s is that of the vassal. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”The peace of Nanking did not last. The Chinese searched a suspicious ship, and the British answered by putting the port city of Canton under siege in 1856, occupying it in 1857. The French also entered the fray. British troops were approaching Beijing and set on to destroy the Summer Palace. China again was forced to sue for peace. In the peace treaty of Tianjin China yielded to the demand to create ten new port cities, and granted foreigners free passage throughout the country. It also agreed to pay an indemnity of five million ounces of silver: three million to Britain and two million to France. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”This deliberate humiliation of China by the Western powers contributed greatly to the loosening and ultimate snapping of the internal coherence of the Qing Dynasty, leading to the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864), the Boxer Uprising (1899-1901) and, ultimately, to the downfall of the Qing Dynasty in 1912. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=” The present trade dispute between the U.S. and China is reminiscent of the background to the two Opium Wars. Once more, the issue is the humiliation and plunder of China as a “thank you” for China’s favor of having provided consumer goods for which the West was unable to pay in terms of Western goods suitable for Chinese consumption. The only difference is the absence of opium in the dispute. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=” Oops, I take it back. The role of ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”opium ” /><Run Text=”in the current dispute is played by ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”paper. ” /><Run Text=”Paper dollars, to be precise. In 1971 an atrocity was made that I call the ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”Nixon-Friedman conspiracy” /><Run Text=”. To cover up the shame and disgrace of the default of the U.S. on its international gold obligations, Milton Friedman (following an earlier failed attempt of John M. Keynes) concocted a spurious and idiotic theory of floating exchange rates. It suggests that falling foreign exchange value of the domestic currency makes it ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”stronger ” /><Run Text=”when in actual fact the opposite is true: it is made ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”weaker ” /><Run Text=”as the terms of trade of the devaluing country deteriorates and that of its trading partners improves. Nixon was quick to embrace the false theory of Friedman. No public debate of the plan was permitted then, or ever after. Under the new dispensation the irredeemable dollar was to play the role of the ultimate extinguisher of debt, a preposterous idea. The scheme was imposed on the world under duress as part of the “new millennium”, shaking off the “tyranny of gold”, that “barbarous relic”, the last remnant of superstition, the only remaining “anachronism of the Modern Age”. The ploy was played up and celebrated as a great scientific breakthrough, making it possible for man to shape his own destiny rationally, free of superstition, for the first time ever. Yet all it was a cheap trick to elevate the dishonored paper of an insolvent banker (the U.S.) from scum to the holy of holies: international currency. The fact that fiat paper money has a history of 100 percent mortality was neatly side-stepped. Any questioning of the wisdom of experimenting with is in spite of logic and historical evidence was declared foggy-bottom reactionary thinking. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=” The amazing thing about this episode of the history of human folly was the ease with which it could be pushed down the throat of the rest of the world, including those nations that were directly hurt by it, such as the ones running a trade surplus with the U.S. Their savings went up in smoke. The explanation for this self-destructing behavior is the addictive, debilitating and mind-corrosive nature of paper money, in direct analogy with that of opium. The high caused by administering the opium pipe to the patient (read: administering QE) had to be repeated when the effect faded by a fresh administration of more opium (read: more QE2). ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”If the patient resists, like China did in 1840, then a holy opium war must be declared on it in the name of the right of others to free trade. 170 years later a New China once more demurred against the paper-torture treatment it was subjected to by the American debt-mongers and opium pushers. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=” But beware: if the West starts another Opium War, this time it is not China that will be on the losing side. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=” ” /><Run FontWeight=”Bold” Text=”Reference ” /><Run Text=” ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”Opium Wars” /><Run Text=”, Wikipedia, June 29, 2010. ” /><Run FontWeight=”Bold” Text=”ANNOUNCEMENT New Austrian School of Economics ” /><Run Text=”Course Two at the Martineum Academy in Szombathely, Hungary, from March 5 through 13, 2011. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”Title of the course: ” /><Run FontWeight=”Bold” Text=”ADAM SMITH’S REAL BILLS DOCTRINE AND SOCIAL CIRCULATING CAPITAL ” /><Run Text=”What makes this course especially topical today is the fact that more and more hints are being dropped about the possible rehabilitation and restoration of the gold standard — following the ignominious collapse of the irredeemable dollar. However, ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”a gold standard without its clearing house, the bill market, ” /><Run FontWeight=”Bold” FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”is not viable” /><Run Text=” and itself is liable to collapse in short order — as it did in the early 1930’s. The level of public ignorance about the necessity of a clearing house is appalling. It is made that much worse by a tottering banking system. We have an urgent message: only gold standard cum real bills can restore prosperity to the world, in view of the fact that ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”we have to write off the world’s banking system as a total loss” /><Run Text=”. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=” This is the second in a four-course series on Austrian Economics, a branch of economic science based on the work of Carl Menger (1840-1921). It is meant for those, including beginners, who are interested in the theory of money, credit, and banking, with ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”special emphasis on the current financial and economic crisis” /><Run Text=”. The complete program consists of four courses (10 days, 20 lectures each). Completion of each course will earn one credit. Participants who have accumulated four credits get a diploma signed by Professor Fekete. Course One that was given in 2010″ /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=” is not a prerequisite” /><Run Text=”. It is available on DVD for purchase. For further information please contact Dr. Judith Szepesvari, e-mail: szepesvari17@gmail.com ” /><Run FontWeight=”Bold” Text=”NEW! EXTRA! SEMINAR Basis, Co-basis, Permanent Backwardation of Gold and Silver and What It Means ” /><Run Text=” March 14, Monday ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=” ” /><Run FontStyle=”Italic” Text=”The New Austrian School of Economics is the only place in the world where you can learn about the gold and silver basis, co-basis, permanent backwardation, and their importance.” /><Run Text=” In 2008 we offered a successful Seminar on the basis in Canberra, Australia, that was followed by a second Seminar in 2009. This will be the third in the series, where the latest results of the ongoing research on the gold and silver basis and co-basis will be discussed by our star research fellow, Sandeep Jaitly, followed by an open-ended discussion. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”No prerequisites are needed: we start with an introductory lecture on the basis and co-basis, with reference to permanent backwardation, by Professor Fekete. ” /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run /></Paragraph><Paragraph FontSize=”20″ FontFamily=”Georgia” Foreground=”#FFFFFFFF” FontWeight=”Normal” FontStyle=”Normal” FontStretch=”Normal” TextAlignment=”Left”><Run Text=”For more details, contact Dr. Judit Szepesvari: szepesvari17@gmail.com ” /></Paragraph></Section>

Filed Under: Antal E. Fekete, Gold and Silver, Popular Economics

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