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Home > Authors

Stock to Flow Ratio – A Primer

July 16, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

The importance of gold’s stock to flow ratio is greatly underestimated. I first came across the concept in 2009 at a lecture by Professor Antal E. Fekete in Szombathely, Hungary. It fascinated me and the more I looked at its implications, the more amazed that I became, not least of which because my search engine couldn’t locate a single piece of writing on the subject anywhere.

The stock to flow ratio of gold and its ramifications are a book in its own right, but as this is a primer I will stick to the basics. It is not possible to fully understand why gold is money without understanding the stock to flow ratio and its significance.


For 6,000 years gold has been used to store wealth. Only a small percentage has ever been used by industry. This means that the vast majority of all the gold ever mined is still available for use. It is generally agreed that 170,000 tonnes of gold has already been mined and is still available for use. This is commonly known as the ‘stock’. This figure is a gross under-representation of the true stock of gold in the world, but it will be used as the working figure to avoid becoming side-tracked.

Each year about 2,400 tonnes of newly mined gold arrives in the market. This is known as the ‘flow’. It is from these two amounts that the ratio is derived. When the stock is divided by the flow we arrive at 71. This means that the stock to flow ratio is 71 to 1. As I said, it is simple. It is the ramifications of this simple ratio, when compared to the stock to flow ratio of other metals, that is so startling.

That amount of flow (2,400 tonnes) is about 1.4 percent of the stock. Even if gold production were to be doubled, then the annual growth in the stock of gold would still be less than three percent. It is almost impossible to imagine how mine supply could be doubled. Enormous new ore bodies would need to be discovered. The stock of gold is far, far greater than the amount of new gold arriving in the market each year. What this leads to is a situation where the value of gold is very stable.

If for some reason the mine supply of gold (the flow) were to completely cease for a couple of years, then again it would have no effect on the value of gold. It is the large amount of easily available stock that gives gold its stability of value. Because there is so much stock it is uninfluenced by the amount of gold that is, or is not, entering the market each year.

Nothing else (except, arguably, silver) has anywhere near this stock to flow ratio. All other metals have a stock considerably less than the flow; as fast as they are mined they are used. Commodity stocks are rarely sufficient to last more than a couple of months. The reason that other metals are mined is entirely different from the reason that gold is mined. Most metals are mined to be used in manufacture; gold is mined because it is money. Whilst readily available gold is equivalent to 71 years worth of supply (stock to flow ratio of 71 to 1), most other commodities have far less than 71 days worth of readily available supply.


Because of its scarcity, platinum has been suggested by some as a new monetary metal. However, in the event that flow was to stop, then stocks of platinum would be exhausted in a matter of weeks. In those circumstances the value of platinum would skyrocket. That makes platinum far too volatile for use as money. Platinum is a precious metal; it can never be a monetary metal. Likewise if the flow of copper were to stop, easily available stock would be exhausted in a matter of weeks and the price of the copper would also skyrocket.

© The Gold Standard Institute

It is ironic that there is a common belief that gold is money because it is precious… because there is so little of it. Gold is money because there is so much of it… relative to flow.

When there is only a small stock of a metal (or any commodity) compared to flow, then the price of that commodity can fluctuate enormously. A new large mine would increase the flow and drop the price of the metal. A sudden closing of a large mine would increase the price dramatically. Such volatility in supply would cause great instability in the perceived value of any metal with a small, above ground stock.

It is the stock to flow ratio that ensures that gold continues to hold a steady value. Because of its high stock to flow ratio, gold holds its value with a stability that is matched by nothing else, and can be matched by nothing else. Because gold has been successfully used as money for so long, it is now impossible to imagine how anything else could ever succeed as money.

Even if a new commodity appeared that satisfied the many functions and requirements of money, it still would not be able to achieve the high stock to flow ratio necessary for real stability of value over time. It is the high stock to flow ratio of gold, higher than anything else, which ensures that gold holds its stable value over the longest period of time. Gold has been accumulated for over 6,000 years to achieve the stock to flow ratio that it has today. How could anything else ever match this?

Gold has a stock to flow ratio, with the consequent stability of value, sufficient to ensure that it will forever remain the only money. That is the significance of the stock to flow ratio. The stock to flow ratio underpins the whole theory of gold as money; it doesn’t get any more important than that.


Philip Barton
16th July, 2011

Filed Under: Gold and Silver, Philip Barton, Popular Economics

You Can’t Eat Gold. But Can You Eat Real Bills?

July 12, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFYouCantEatGold.pdf

I have received the following letter from a reader.

Professor:

I have been reading your essays on real bills for several years with great interest. If there were any contemporary examples of such credit in circulation, it would be easier to understand how real bills work. Also, have you considered editing the real bill entry on Wikipedia, to give it a less pejorative sense?

Paul Dadford

Seattle

Here is my answer:

Hello Paul:

I am not responsible for the real bill entry on Wikipedia. I understand it was written by Mike Sproul, the author of the pamphlet There’s No Such Thing as Fiat Money .

I shall give you more than what you have asked me for: I give you a futuristic example of real bills in action and how you can put them in circulation. I hope it won’t come to that, but if we find out that the dollar has no dispensation from heaven exempting it from being fiat money and, hence, it can lose all its purchasing power as has every other fiat money in history within a generation, then my epistle may come handy some day.

Suppose for the sake of argument that the U.S. dollar has already lost all its purchasing power. (My apologies to Mike Sproul, but I was in Germany on August 15, 1971, the very day the dollar was declared fiat money. In trying to check out of my hotel, the cashier declined my Federal Reserve notes. He sent me to a bank across the street to change my money. At the bank I found a long line of other people with the same problem waiting for their turn. The teller was on the phone nonstop, waiting for the latest instructions from headquarters. To put it mildly, the bank did not welcome the opportunity to do business with us wanting to sell dollars, and we were treated accordingly: you were asked to produce 3 picture ID’s, provide your address and phone number, the name and address of your employer, your mother’s maiden name, your next destination, etc.)

Going back to our futuristic story, we have assumed that the dollar has died. It would be outrageous to assume also that the American people, and people of other countries where the dollar used to circulate, would now have one great death wish: they would all want to die along with the dollar in sympathy. No, they would want to eat, to get clad, shod, and to keep themselves warm in winter as before. Admittedly they have a problem. Here is what they will do.

Let’s say you are the maker of some consumer good (say, a small whisky dispenser that can be attached to any cell-phone) that you are selling through Macy’s Department Stores; and your brother is producing some semi-finished goods (say, cigarette lighters to be built into cell-phones) that he is selling through Walmart. As neither Macy’s nor Walmart is accepting dollar bills from their customers, they won’t try to pass off dollar bills to you. Macy’s offers you two choices (the procedure at Walmart is very similar):

(1) you can have Macy-vouchers in any combination that you can use in store as cash, or

(2) you can bill Macy’s for the goods delivered.

A bit suspicious, you take the second choice. Then the clerk at Macy’s gives you a form to fill out, indicating date, quantity and quality of goods delivered, and your instruction that they pay the bill at their chief cashier’s office ‘in legal money’ no later than 91 days to you or to whomever you may transfer the title through endorsing in the meantime. The receiving department takes your bill, stamps it on the other side with the legend “I accept” over the signature of the receiving clerk, date, address and phone number of Macy’s. Then the bill is returned to you.

Congratulations: you have just drawn your first real bill!

The receiving clerk apologizes for the inconvenience and gives you a flyer suggesting supermarkets and clothes outlets in the neighborhood that will accept your bill drawn on Macy’s as cash in payment for your purchases.

He also gives you another flyer listing those firms, including Walmart, whose bills (i.e., bills drawn on them) are received as cash at all the cashiers in any Macy’s store. This means that if your brother endorses his bill drawn on Walmart, then you can use it as cash at Macy’s.

As you leave Macy’s, you get a terrible toothache. You go the dentist’s office nearby where you are informed by the receptionist that the doctor no longer accepts dollar bills in payment. She gives you a flyer listing supermarkets and department stores whose bills the doctor will take. Luckily, Macy’s is on that list and you are on your way to the dentist’s chair. The professional charges are lower than your bill drawn on Macy’s so the receptionist offers you change in the form of a bill drawn on the dentist that you can use to pay for further professional services of his, but is also receivable by hundreds of medical offices nearby, as well as by many retail outlets including Macy’s.

Congratulations: you have just put your first real bill into circulation!

Incidentally, all the banks have by then closed their doors for reasons of insolvency. Nobody feels sorry for them. They got such a bad name during the death-throes of the dollar that the few of them that tried to re-open for business were avoided by the people like they avoid the plague. According to the latest report some succeeded, but their officers shun the name ‘banker’. They call themselves ‘bill mongers’. Sounds much more honorable.

Real bills are second only to gold. But sometimes they are safer. When you try to eat them, for example. True, it is a hassle trying to eat your real bill. But when you try to eat your gold, you may get killed for it!

Detractors of real bills, beware! One day your life may depend on them!

Yours, etc.,

Professorfekete

Come to Munich, the capital of Bavaria, for the next ten-day course of the New Austrian School of Economics, from August 20-29, 2011, where I shall answer any questions you may have on the origin of money, origin of interest, hoardability of monetary metals, opening the Mint to silver. Also on hand will be Sandeep Jaitly to tell you about the gold mine of the silver basis, and about the last contango in Washington. For details, consult: See also my website:

Also on the drawing board we have a Seminar in Hong Kong, as well as one in Auckland, NZ, coming up in November. Stay tuned for details.

Filed Under: Antal E. Fekete, Gold and Silver, Popular Economics

Government Deficit Spending is Paid Every Day

July 11, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

There is a lot of public concern in the US, about the “excessive borrowing” by the Government; it has to go on borrowing in order to continue in a spending mode, and Congress is locked in a debate: Republicans want to cut (some) spending, Democrats want to raise taxes. Neither side wants to budge on raising the National Debt Limit.

Part of the argument against increased borrowing is that “future generations will be burdened” by the future payment of the borrowed funds.

The main argument against government spending appears to be unmentioned.

The main argument goes like this: “Forget about future generations being burdened by the National Debt. Government spending is actually paid here and now, every day, by all Americans.”

Government spending is actually paid here and now, every day, because all government spending is a call upon present wealth. When government spends money, it is taking away part of the present wealth of all Americans, to use as it sees fit.

So out-of-control spending is actually impoverishing Americans every minute of every day. In this very real sense, government spending is making all Americans poorer, every day: they are paying for this spending today; not tomorrow, when the Bonds come due, but today.

If the American people were freely, of their own accord, purchasing Treasury Bonds out of their savings, the situation would be somewhat different – the government might be “crowding out” borrowers in the private sector, which would be negative for the health of the US economy, but not directly impoverishing the people.

But this is not the case. QE2 proved this fact. There were not enough buyers of US Government debt, to sustain the pace of spending, so the Fed had to purchase the Treasury Bonds, not out of savings, but with funds created out of thin air.

The printing of money to provide cash for the Government to continue its spending spree is a call upon the wealth of the American people, a disguised expropriation of a part of their present wealth. The unlimited spending of the US Government is today grinding the American people into poverty.

The payment of spending is going on now! Just as if a tax collector were going into every house and home in the country and carrying off its wealth.

Forget about “future generations” paying for today’s spending! Government spending is being paid for every passing minute, by today’s Americans. Americans are poorer today, than they were yesterday, and tomorrow they will be poorer than they are today.

Government spending is paid in the present! Dick Cheney said: “Deficits don’t matter” and he was right – the National Debt will never be paid in the future, so the deficits that create the National Debt don’t matter.

What does matter is that the Trillion dollar deficits are paid today, by the American people, as their wealth is sucked away by government spending.


Hugo Salinas Price
July 11, 2011

Filed Under: Gold and Silver, Hugo Salinas Price, Popular Economics

Krugman: “Gold bugs have taken over the GOP”

July 11, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

 

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/558-krugman-in-the-new-york-times-qgold-bugs-have-taken-over-the-gopq

Krugman: “Gold bugs have taken over the GOP”
Written by Ralph J. Benko
Monday, July 11, 2011

This just in:

In a July 6 New York Times “Conscience of a Liberal,” in an entry entitled The Armageddon Caucus, columnist and Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman — perhaps the most vociferous living foe of the gold standard — says:

So consider, now, what’s going on politically. Gold bugs have taken over the GOP; even if they can’t reimpose the gold standard, they will make it very hard for future Bernankes to do even as much as the current one did to fight the crisis. And there’s a big push on not just to downsize government, but to convert federal programs like Medicaid and unemployment insurance into block grants, more or less ensuring that they will be cut rather than expanding in a slump. (Emphasis supplied.)

Mr. Krugman, unequivocally one of the left’s most gifted polemicists — with a Nobel Prize in Economics with which to establish his prestige — has a long history in opposition to gold. In 1996 he wrote:

THE GOLD BUG VARIATIONS

SYNOPSIS: The Gold Standard is an Economic myth whose only benefit is it sounds good

The legend of King Midas has been generally misunderstood. Most people think the curse that turned everything the old miser touched into gold, leaving him unable to eat or drink, was a lesson in the perils of avarice. But Midas’ true sin was his failure to understand monetary economics. What the gods were really telling him is that gold is just a metal. If it sometimes seems to be more, that is only because society has found it convenient to use gold as a medium of exchange–a bridge between other, truly desirable, objects. There are other possible mediums of exchange, and it is silly to imagine that this pretty, but only moderately useful, substance has some irreplaceable significance.

But there are many people–nearly all of them ardent conservatives–who reject that lesson. While Jack Kemp, Steve Forbes, and Wall Street Journal editor Robert Bartley are best known for their promotion of supply-side economics, they are equally dedicated to the belief that the key to prosperity is a return to the gold standard, which John Maynard Keynes pronounced a “barbarous relic” more than 60 years ago. With any luck, these latter-day Midases will never lay a finger on actual monetary policy. Nonetheless, these are influential people–they are one of the factions now struggling for the Republican Party’s soul–and the passionate arguments they make for a gold standard are a useful window on how they think.

There is a case to be made for a return to the gold standard. It is not a very good case, and most sensible economists reject it, but the idea is not completely crazy. On the other hand, the ideas of our modern gold bugs are completely crazy. Their belief in gold is, it turns out, not pragmatic but mystical.

There is an irony here. Today’s chief proponents of gold take the position that gold has a much better track record, as Lewis E. Lehrman puts it, “in the laboratory of history” than does the fiduciary currency standard of which Mr. Krugman is among the most celebrated champions. We “gold bugs” take the position that the proponents, like Mr. Krugman, of monetary policy managed in the discretion of experts are the ones engaged in magical thinking. In last week’s July 9th Washington Post gold standard proponent (and TGSN senior advisor) James Grant writes an elegant analysis of why faith-based money is bad for the economy and why the gold standard is good, noting:

“’Deficits without tears,’ the French economist Jacques Rueff called these seductive arrangements.”

So the argument now is joined and neatly framed.

Are the proponents of the gold standard being “mystical?”

Or are the proponents of a fiduciary system managed in the discretion of elite civil servants “seductive.”

We cannot both be correct. In the 40 years since President Nixon abandoned (“temporarily”) the remnants of the gold standard an enormous amount of data has been accumulated.

Yes, Mr. Krugman. The gold bugs have taken over the GOP. The critical question now is being tried in the supreme court of public opinion.

We “gold bugs” could not have hoped for a worthier adversary as “counsel for the defense” in the indictment of inconvertible paper money than Paul Krugman.


Ralph J. Benko – Monday, July 11, 2011

Filed Under: Gold and Silver, Popular Economics, Ralph J. Benko

“You Have Never Ever Seen An Elephant Fly”

July 4, 2011 by The Gold Standard Institute International

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFRealBillsAndMortgages.pdf

In the 19th century a saying was current on Lombard Street that went like this: “There is nothing easier in the world than the banker’s profession – provided that he can tell a real bill and a mortgage apart.”

I would like to engage Dr. Joseph Salerno in a friendly debate on this maxim. In his interview with the Daily Bell published July 3, 2011, he sees nothing wrong with people drawing bills of exchange, or accepting them in payment, as these instruments are completely consistent with a society based on free contract. I heartily welcome this statement of his. It should be much more widely known. After the death of the dollar people in the United States, and in other countries wherever the dollar also circulates, will not want to die along with the currency. They will still want to eat, get clad, shod, and keep themselves warm in winter. In order to be able do so they will just have to draw bills on retail merchants and other producers whom they supply with finished or semi-finished goods. These bills will serve as cash with which to buy food, clothes, shoes, fuel. We may expect that banks, central or otherwise, will have earned themselves such a bad name by then that nobody will want to be known as a ‘banker’. ‘Bill-monger’ will sound much more honorable.

Dr. Salerno adds: What I vigorously reject is the age-old fallacy known as the ‘real bills doctrine’ asserting that when a bank issues currency or creates a bank deposit in discounting a bill of exchange, it is not causing inflation . In the next sentence he clarifies his position further when he suggests that whether a fractional-reserve bank buys a mortgage, or whether it discounts a real bill, it comes to the same thing: the bank increases its demand deposit liabilities to finance the expansion of assets.

While this is true, it does not prove that the bank is guilty of causing inflation when discounting a real bill. The difference is this, and in ignoring it Dr. Salerno dodges the real issue here: when the bank discounts a real bill, it withdraws from the market an instrument that circulates as money. Ephemeral, to be sure, but money nevertheless. Ludwig von Mises, no friend of the real bills doctrine, admits that bills of exchange have circulated as a means of payment among spinners, weavers and other tradesmen dealing in cotton products in Lancashire before the Bank of England opened its branch in Manchester.

There was a time not too many years ago when it was strictly against the rules for a commercial bank to put a mortgage in its portfolio of assets. You have never ever seen a mortgage, or an elephant for that matter, fly. Real bills, by contrast, can and do circulate on their own wings and under their own steam as currency. The present Great Financial Crisis started with commercial banks overloading their portfolio with mortgages disguised as ‘securitized equity’. Yet no one is inquiring whether the violation of the old time-tested rules has caused the crisis in the first place.

In discounting a real bill the banker only substitutes his own credit that has a higher name-recognition. The potent ingredient of the credit is that of the weaver, even though it has a lower name-recognition. The searching question to ask therefore is this: does the weaver really cause inflation when he passes along the bill he has drawn on the fabric merchant to the spinner in payment for the yarn?

I hope Dr. Salerno agrees with my answer: no, the weaver causes no inflation. It is true that he puts a purchasing medium, his bill drawn on the fabric merchant into circulation, but it is matched by the cloth, a new merchandise of the same value he offers for sale. The bill and the cloth appear simultaneously and will disappear simultaneously. The former disappears when it matures, and the latter disappears when it is purchased by the ultimate consumer. An increase in purchasing media that is matched by an increase of merchandise in urgent consumer demand is not inflationary.

Bankers of old on Lombard Street expressed this by saying that the credit embodied by a real bill is self-liquidating as it is extinguished by virtue of the sale of underlying merchandise on which it is drawn. By contrast, the credit embodied by a mortgage is not self-liquidating as it is not normally extinguished out of the proceeds of the sale of the underlying property.

Dr. Salerno also makes a comment on the suppression of the rate of interest, allegedly caused by bankers in discounting real bills at a discount rate lower than the rate of interest. This suppression, he suggests, generates an unlimited supply of bills to discount, causing an inflationary spiral of money-creation and price increases.

Mises explicitly stated that the discount rate is just another name for a short-term interest rate with interest taken out of the proceeds of the loan up front. However, this description is mistaken, as pointed out by several authors, among others John Fullarton and Charles Rist. The nature and origin of the discount rate are entirely different from that of the rate of interest. The two rates are completely independent of one another. The rate of interest is determined by the propensity to save ; the discount rate by the propensity to consume . In either case the relationship is inverse: the greater the propensity, the lower the rate, and conversely.

When the spinner delivers yarn to the weaver and is offered payment in the form of a bill drawn on the fabric merchant, he will accept it but will apply a discount to the face value. The question is how the two tradesmen can come to an agreement what rate to apply. There can be only one answer to this question: a lower discount rate will be acceptable to the spinner if the market is brisk; however, a higher discount rate will be insisted on if the market is lethargic. Thus the discount rate is determined by the condition of the consumer goods market, and not by the availability of savings. It reflects the propensity to consume (with apologies to Keynes). There is no loan involved in discounting , so the rate of interest is irrelevant. Tradesmen processing semi-finished goods hardly ever pay cash for supplies to their suppliers. The prices they are quoted are not cash prices. They are “90 days net”. The credit is part of the deal: you need not even ask for it. On the rare occasion when you don’t need the credit you pre-pay your bill, having applied the discount to its face value.

Filed Under: Antal E. Fekete, Gold and Silver, Popular Economics

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